With the number of procedures forecasted to increase, we believe Intuitive's instrument and accessories revenue may grow at an average rate of 8.03% until 2026. We also factored in average revenue per procedure to grow at Intuitive's 4-year average growth rate of 1.05%. From 2023 onwards, we used GlobalData's forecast of robotic surgery system procedures growing at 10.5% CAGR. Intuitive guided an average increase of 13% in procedure growth for 2022.
Ivinci health revenues install#
We believe without current technology improving, hospitals may decide not to install robotic surgery systems due to high costs along with no significant difference for the patient from undergoing conventional surgery. Johnson HospitalĪdditionally, a study conducted by the UK National Institute of Health found due to the high fixed cost of maintaining a robotic surgery system, hospitals will need to perform at least 100 to 150 procedures per year to justify the cost of installing the system.Ī group of researchers from Canada also concluded their study mentioning there is "limited supporting evidence" for patients to support the rapid adoption of robotic surgeries.īased on the studies currently, the outcome of robotic surgery does not provide much more benefits to the patient compared to laparoscopic surgery. In studies of gastrointestinal surgery, life-threatening complications ranged from 0 to 2 percent for robot-assisted surgery, from 0 to 3 percent for laparoscopy and from 1 to 4 percent for open surgeries.
In 39 studies that reported the incidence of complications requiring further surgical interventions, up to 9 percent of conventional laparoscopies led to such problems, but so did as much as 8 percent of robotic operations. Recent review of 50 randomized controlled trials, testing robot-assisted surgeries against conventional methods for abdominal or pelvic procedures, suggests that while there may be some benefits to robotic surgery, any advantages over other approaches are modest. While the past growth rate of Intuitive is promising, a few studies conducted show no significant benefits for patients who choose robotic surgery over conventional surgery. With the installation of robotic surgery systems, the use of laparoscopic surgery also declined by 0.3%. The study also found the use of robotic surgeries to increase by 8.8% within the first 4 years of the hospital installing the robotic surgery system. Sheetz (Center for Healthcare Outcomes & Policy, University of Michigan School of Medicine) analyzed 169,404 patients at 73 hospitals, indicates the use of robotic surgery increased from 1.8% in 2012 to 15.1% in 2018. Install Base Forecasted to Continue GrowingĪ study conducted by Dr. For the valuation, we applied a DCF analysis based on the industry average, and find the company fairly valued. However, with larger companies entering the market we believe the company's market share may decline to 80.22% by 2026. Lastly, we highlighted Intuitive's position as a market leader. Moreover, our analysis shows the historical growth in revenue and EBITDA led to a high EV/EBITDA multiple which we do not expect to continue growing in the future.
We forecasted the R&D and SG&A costs to decrease in the future. We also analyzed the R&D and SG&A cost per install base and believe Intuitive has achieved economies of scale. ( NASDAQ: ISRG), we forecasted the revenue to decelerate and grow at an average of 12.2% for the next 5 years. In this analysis of Intuitive Surgical, Inc.